The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail-- but Some Don't
New York : Penguin Press, 2012.
Format: Book
Description: 534 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
Contents:
A Catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
Subjects:
Forecasting.
Forecasting -- Methodology.
Forecasting -- History.
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Knowledge, Theory of.
Forecasting.
Forecasting -- Methodology.
Forecasting -- History.
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Knowledge, Theory of.
Target Audience: 1260L
ISBN:
9781594204111
Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index.